TY - GEN

T1 - Comparison of state of the art sampling-based Bayesian Updating techniques

AU - Dodt, M. B.

AU - Kitahara, M.

AU - Broggi, M.

AU - Beer, M.

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Nowadays, model updating has an increasing importance in many areas of interest for engineering applications such as structural health monitoring or risk and reliability assessment. As a matter of fact, it allows for solving a plethora of inverse problems with high computationally efficiency, allowing for example to monitor structural parameter, to detect damage quickly and to timely intervene with mitigating actions. Among the algorithms available to solve Bayesian updating, methods based on sampling present a flexibility that allows solving the problem numerically, either based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method or based on the usage of Bayesian updating with structural reliability (BUS) methods. Additionally, BUS can be coupled with additional methods such as surrogate modelling and efficient simulation methods to further improve its numerical efficiency. Thus, engineering practitioners need to understand which possible combination of the available algorithms should be used to solve their needs. In this paper, we provide an overview of different MCMC and BUS methods, directly calling the model and also employing the Kriging meta-model, covering in detail the advantages and disadvantages of each method as well as their applicability. The investigated methods are applied to solve model updating and model class selection. Two numerical examples are used to verify and test the analysed methods, drawing conclusion on their accuracy, performance, robustness, numerical efficiency and ability to perform model class selection.

AB - Nowadays, model updating has an increasing importance in many areas of interest for engineering applications such as structural health monitoring or risk and reliability assessment. As a matter of fact, it allows for solving a plethora of inverse problems with high computationally efficiency, allowing for example to monitor structural parameter, to detect damage quickly and to timely intervene with mitigating actions. Among the algorithms available to solve Bayesian updating, methods based on sampling present a flexibility that allows solving the problem numerically, either based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method or based on the usage of Bayesian updating with structural reliability (BUS) methods. Additionally, BUS can be coupled with additional methods such as surrogate modelling and efficient simulation methods to further improve its numerical efficiency. Thus, engineering practitioners need to understand which possible combination of the available algorithms should be used to solve their needs. In this paper, we provide an overview of different MCMC and BUS methods, directly calling the model and also employing the Kriging meta-model, covering in detail the advantages and disadvantages of each method as well as their applicability. The investigated methods are applied to solve model updating and model class selection. Two numerical examples are used to verify and test the analysed methods, drawing conclusion on their accuracy, performance, robustness, numerical efficiency and ability to perform model class selection.

KW - Bayesian Updating

KW - Kriging

KW - Markov Chain

KW - Model Identification

KW - Simulation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85202021813&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3850/978-981-18-5184-1_MS-02-146-cd

DO - 10.3850/978-981-18-5184-1_MS-02-146-cd

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85202021813

SN - 9789811851841

SP - 59

EP - 66

BT - Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management, ISRERM 2022

A2 - Beer, Michael

A2 - Zio, Enrico

A2 - Phoon, Kok-Kwang

A2 - Ayyub, Bilal M.

T2 - 8th International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management, ISRERM 2022

Y2 - 4 September 2022 through 7 September 2022

ER -