TY - JOUR

T1 - Can ensemble forecasts improve the reliability of flood alerts?

AU - Dietrich, J.

AU - Denhard, M.

AU - Schumann, A. H.

PY - 2009/12

Y1 - 2009/12

N2 - A probabilistic evaluation of ensemble forecasts can be used to communicate uncertainty to decision makers. We present a flood forecast scheme, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE (lagged average) ensemble prediction systems with a rainfall-runoff model. The methodology was demonstrated with a case study for the Central European Mulde River basin. In this paper, we summarize results from hindcast simulations for seven events from 2002 to 2008. The ensemble spread resulting from uncertainty in rainfall forecast was very high at 2-5 days lead time. The median of the medium- and short-range forecasts and a lagged average ensemble of the very short-range forecasts proved to be reliable regarding the probability of exceeding flood alert levels. However, the limited number of observed events does not allow for the postulation of prescriptive binary decision rules. Flood managers have to adapt their decisions when new information becomes available.

AB - A probabilistic evaluation of ensemble forecasts can be used to communicate uncertainty to decision makers. We present a flood forecast scheme, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE (lagged average) ensemble prediction systems with a rainfall-runoff model. The methodology was demonstrated with a case study for the Central European Mulde River basin. In this paper, we summarize results from hindcast simulations for seven events from 2002 to 2008. The ensemble spread resulting from uncertainty in rainfall forecast was very high at 2-5 days lead time. The median of the medium- and short-range forecasts and a lagged average ensemble of the very short-range forecasts proved to be reliable regarding the probability of exceeding flood alert levels. However, the limited number of observed events does not allow for the postulation of prescriptive binary decision rules. Flood managers have to adapt their decisions when new information becomes available.

KW - Decision support system

KW - Ensemble technique

KW - Extreme flood

KW - Flood forecast

KW - Flood risk

KW - Rainfall-runoff model

KW - Reliability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=74349128163&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01039.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01039.x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:74349128163

VL - 2

SP - 232

EP - 242

JO - Journal of flood risk management

JF - Journal of flood risk management

SN - 1753-318X

IS - 4

ER -