Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Titel des Sammelwerks | Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk |
| Untertitel | Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 |
| Herausgeber/-innen | Jim W. Hall, Siu-Kui Au, Michael Beer |
| Herausgeber (Verlag) | American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) |
| Seiten | 598-607 |
| Seitenumfang | 10 |
| ISBN (elektronisch) | 9780784413609 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 2014 |
| Extern publiziert | Ja |
| Veranstaltung | 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 - Liverpool, Großbritannien / Vereinigtes Königreich Dauer: 13 Juli 2014 → 16 Juli 2014 |
Abstract
The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Ingenieurwesen (insg.)
- Sicherheit, Risiko, Zuverlässigkeit und Qualität
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Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. Hrsg. / Jim W. Hall; Siu-Kui Au; Michael Beer. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014. S. 598-607.
Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/Sammelwerk/Konferenzband › Aufsatz in Konferenzband › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Bayesian Network Approach for Risk Assessment of a Spent Nuclear Fuel Pond
AU - Tolo, Silvia
AU - Patelli, Edoardo
AU - Beer, Michael
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.
AB - The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84933564927&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1061/9780784413609.061
DO - 10.1061/9780784413609.061
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84933564927
SP - 598
EP - 607
BT - Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
A2 - Hall, Jim W.
A2 - Au, Siu-Kui
A2 - Beer, Michael
PB - American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
T2 - 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
Y2 - 13 July 2014 through 16 July 2014
ER -