TY - GEN

T1 - Analysis Of Uncertainty Over The Factory Life Cycle

AU - Hingst, Lennart

AU - Nyhuis, Peter

N1 - Funding Information: Partially funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) – 412409961. The authors wish to thank Antal Dér and Christoph Herrmann for the valuable discussions.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - The cost and performance structure of a factory is determined in factory planning and activated in the operation phase with a time delay. Even though the majority of investments result from structural planning, the first conceptual and most important step in factory planning, the majority of costs occur during factory operation, the longest phase of a factory life cycle. Life cycle-oriented factory planning seeks to anticipate operation in order to increase the performance potential and reduce total costs over the entire factory life cycle. Experience shows that this can reduce total costs by about one-third, 80% of which are unplanned operating costs. Therefore, it is imperative to be aware of possible uncertainties in the course of a factory life cycle as a factory planner. Up to now, there has been an inconsistent understanding in this regard. By definition, the emphasis has been on long-term change drivers influenced by megatrends due to the strategic orientation of factory planning. The current crisis situation illustrates the relevance of an operational view on potential short-term uncertainties. The goal of the paper is to analyze the uncertainty over the factory life cycle in its entirety and to create a common understanding for factory planning so that life cycle-oriented planning and evaluation of factories can be aligned accordingly.

AB - The cost and performance structure of a factory is determined in factory planning and activated in the operation phase with a time delay. Even though the majority of investments result from structural planning, the first conceptual and most important step in factory planning, the majority of costs occur during factory operation, the longest phase of a factory life cycle. Life cycle-oriented factory planning seeks to anticipate operation in order to increase the performance potential and reduce total costs over the entire factory life cycle. Experience shows that this can reduce total costs by about one-third, 80% of which are unplanned operating costs. Therefore, it is imperative to be aware of possible uncertainties in the course of a factory life cycle as a factory planner. Up to now, there has been an inconsistent understanding in this regard. By definition, the emphasis has been on long-term change drivers influenced by megatrends due to the strategic orientation of factory planning. The current crisis situation illustrates the relevance of an operational view on potential short-term uncertainties. The goal of the paper is to analyze the uncertainty over the factory life cycle in its entirety and to create a common understanding for factory planning so that life cycle-oriented planning and evaluation of factories can be aligned accordingly.

KW - Change Drivers

KW - Factory Life Cycle

KW - Factory Planning

KW - Risks

KW - Uncertainty

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85164443808&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.15488/13497

DO - 10.15488/13497

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85164443808

SP - 778

EP - 789

BT - Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics

T2 - 4th Conference on Production Systems and Logistics, CPSL 2023

Y2 - 28 February 2023 through 2 March 2023

ER -